000
FXUS61 KOKX 300831
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
431 AM EDT FRI JUL 30 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH MOVES EAST
SUNDAY ALLOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO APPROACH. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR WEST TODAY. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
MEAN TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED SHOWER...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK CITY
METRO. DRY AIRMASS WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR THOUGH FOR ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY AND LIFT COULD TRIGGER A
SHOWER AS VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MODEL BLEND YIELDS READINGS JUST BELOW NORMAL.
WITH POSSIBLE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY LINGERING DIURNAL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO CLEARING THIS EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP BELOW SEASONAL NORMS TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...LINGERING
UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.
AGAIN...COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DO EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL SHORT
OF SEASONAL NORMS.
THE HIGH WILL PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE RESULT
WILL BE INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CLOUD COVER. INVERTED SFC TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. LAYERED POPS
FROM HIGHEST TO THE WEST AND LOWEST TO THE EAST. INSTABILITY
WEAK...AND SO IS FORCING SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE NOR
SEVERE STORMS.
AGAIN...TEMPS JUST BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SUNDAY NIGHT-MON AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL DIFFERENCES
NOTED EARLY THIS TIME FRAME WITH REGARD TO HANDLING OF UPPER TROUGH
AND SFC FEATURES. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WOULD MOVE TO OUR SOUTH
EARLY IN THE WEEK.
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST HERE WHICH FAVORED THE WETTER
GFS SOLUTION. THIS SOLUTION COULD BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
PARTS THE AREA DEPENDING IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE INVERTED TROUGH.
THE TROUGH IS FCST TO WEAKEN MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHILE
ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE SLOWLY ADVECTS NORTH OF THE AREA...SO AFTER
SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING THAT TIME HAVE SIDED WITH A DRY FCST TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC...AND AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD FROM THE WEST FROM
LATE WED ON.
EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON MON WITH CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP...THEN A
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY HOT TEMPS TUE-THU.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
WIND HAVE WEAKENED A BIT AND WE HAVE LOST THE GUSTS. THE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 08-14KT. A
FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER WILL NOT CARRY IN
THE TAFS.
GENERALLY A NORTHERLY FLOW ON TAP FOR FRIDAY MORNING. FLOW SHOULD
LIGHTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW LATE DAY SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT COASTAL
TERMINALS. SCT-BKN AFT CU AND ISOLATED SHRA POSSIBLE WITH SHORTWAVE
SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA...SHOULD REMAIN VFR THOUGH.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECION.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CONFIDENCE LOW ON SEABREEZE OCCURING LATE IN
THE DAY TODAY.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
SUN-TUE...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUN.
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SAT...THEN MOVES OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SUN...AND
TRACK NE...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND ON MON. HIGH PRES
RETURNS ON TUE.
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS SOME OF THE OTHER
MODEL SOLNS WHICH IS AFFECTING WAVEWATCH DATA ON MON/TUE. HAVE GONE
A FOOT ABOVE THE GUIDANCE (WHICH KEEPS SEAS JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS)
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW TRACKING INTO THE ATLANTIC...BUT THERE IS
DEFINITELY UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
WINDS AND SEAS TO BE A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE TO NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
UNSETTLED PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAVIER PRECIP POSSIBLE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NYC IS CLOSE TO SETTING THE RECORD FOR THE WARMEST MONTH ON RECORD.
AS OF JULY 28TH...THE AVERAGE TEMP AT CENTRAL PARK IS 81.8. THE
CURRENT RECORD IS 81.4 SET IN 1999. IN SPITE OF THE FORECAST FOR
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND...THE RECORD REMAINS IN
JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN. UPDATED INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN/PW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...PW
CLIMATE...