National Weather Service Forecast for: Bergenfield, NJ Issued by : NWS office in New York, NY
Last update at 09:28:31 2017-11-23
Thanksgiving DayTonightFridayFriday NightSaturdaySaturday NightSundaySunday NightMondayMonday Night
SunnyPartly CloudySunnyMostly ClearMostly Sunny then Slight Chance ShowersMostly CloudyMostly SunnyMostly ClearSunnyMostly Clear
Hi 42Lo 30Hi 50Lo 37Hi 53Lo 36Hi 45Lo 30Hi 47Lo 35
Thanksgiving DaySunny, with a high near 42. West wind 6 to 8 mph.
TonightPartly cloudy, with a low around 30. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
FridaySunny, with a high near 50. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the morning.
Friday NightMostly clear, with a low around 37. Southwest wind 3 to 5 mph.
SaturdayA 20 percent chance of showers after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 53. Light south wind becoming southwest 5 to 9 mph in the morning.
Saturday NightMostly cloudy, with a low around 36.
SundayMostly sunny, with a high near 45.
Sunday NightMostly clear, with a low around 30.
MondaySunny, with a high near 47.
Monday NightMostly clear, with a low around 35.
TuesdaySunny, with a high near 55.
Tuesday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 40.
WednesdayMostly sunny, with a high near 57.
'

NWS Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Text Product Display
Issued by NWS Upton, NY
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Versions:
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FXUS61 KOKX 231447
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
947 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds to the south through Friday, then pushes
east of the Atlantic coast into Saturday. A cold front
approaches from the west Saturday, then crosses the area
Saturday night. High pressure then builds in from the southwest
through Monday night, then slides off the Mid-Atlantic coast
Tuesday. A cold front approaches from the west Tuesday night,
then crosses the area on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Made only minor changes to the hourly temperatures and dew point temperatures
based on the latest observations and trends. This forecast appears
on track.

Otherwise...a 700-500 hPa trough approaches today, but with dry
low-mid levels it should be dry, with just some patchy high
clouds out ahead of it, mainly in the afternoon.

Highs today should be 5-10 degrees below normal, mainly from
around 40 to the lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The trough crosses the region in pieces, with the northern
stream portion crossing the area this evening, and the southern
stream portion overnight. Given the unphased nature of the
trough and relatively dry mid-upper levels, have continued with
a dry forecast for tonight. Lows tonight should be around 5
degrees below normal, mainly from the mid 20s to around 30,
except low-mid 30s in the NYC metro.

Southwest flow sets up aloft on Friday, with no notable
shortwave progged to pass over the area in this flow, it should
be dry, with minimal, if any cloud cover. Highs should be near
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SW flow aloft continues Friday night, and absent any shortwaves
in the flow, it should continue to be dry, with minimal cloud
cover. Lows Friday night should be near to slightly above
normal.

A deep layered trough approaches on Saturday, models do differ
on how well phased it is. The GFS is the most coherent between
the northern and southern streams, while the ECMWF/CMC/NAM have
the northern stream trough progressing quicker than the
southern stream trough, and shearing out as it lifts NE. The
SREF has similar coherence to the GFS, but is slower with the
overall system.

Noting that the northern stream currently is more progressive
than the southern stream, have leaned more towards the
ECMWF/CMC/NAM Saturday/Saturday night. However, do have slight
chance pops mainly Saturday afternoon (and into the evening far
E zones) with the addition of lift just ahead of the surface
cold front.

The region remains at the base of a northern stream trough
Sunday-Sunday night. However, given dry low levels, have
continued with a dry forecast.

Deep layered ridging builds from Monday into Tuesday, then
slides off shore through Tuesday night. Subsidence associated
with the ridge should keep things dry, with minimal cloud cover.

Models then differ on Wednesday. The CMC has a closed low N of
the Great Lakes with and associated full latitude trough
building into the deep south. The ECMWF has a shearing out
northern stream shortwave race by to the north. The GFS is
fairly similar to the ECMWF, however, not quite as flat with the
shortwave/overall pattern over the eastern U.S. Since the CMC
appears to be a clear outlier, went with a GFS/ECMWF blend. With
expectation of relatively dry-low to mid levels and limited
dynamics to work with, limited pops on Wednesday to slight
chance, as some isolated showers cannot be ruled out.

Temperatures Saturday-Wednesday, start out above normal on
Saturday, should be below normal Sunday-Monday, then above
normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds to the south through Friday, while a weak
surface trough passes through the area this evening.

VFR. NW winds 10 kt or less (right of 310 magnetic) this
morning, likely backing to the west (left of 310 magnetic) in
the afternoon.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Timing of winds backing from right of 310
magnetic to left of 310 magnetic could be off by 1 to 2 hours.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Timing of winds backing from right of 310
magnetic to left of 310 magnetic could be off by 1 to 2 hours.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of winds backing from right of 310
magnetic to left of 310 magnetic could be off by 1 to 2 hours.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Timing of winds backing from right of 310
magnetic to left of 310 magnetic could be off by 1 to 2 hours.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Friday-Friday Night...VFR. Light W winds, backing to the SW by
late morning/early afternoon.
.Saturday-Saturday Night...Low prob of -SHRA and MVFR with
frontal passage. Windshift from SW to NW late Sat/Sat Eve.
.Sunday...Becoming VFR. NW winds G20-30KT forecast.
.Monday...VFR. Winds back to more westerly and decrease. Gusts
15-20KT possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.

Although wind gusts are below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels
of 25 kt, seas remain at 4 to 6 ft, mainly in SE swells every 10
seconds. Guidance indicates a 5ft@10 sec period swell
continuing, then slowly subsiding through Friday.

So 5 ft seas are likely today on the ocean. With a slight
strengthening of pressure gradient and caa tonight, the marginal SCA
seas may linger through tonight into Friday, particularly for
eastern ocean waters.

SW gradient picks up late Friday into Friday night, which would
signal likelihood for SCA ocean seas remaining/developing late
Friday into Friday night and continuing into Saturday, particularly
east.

Sub SCA conditions are expected on all non-ocean zones through
Saturday.

SCA conds likely all waters late Saturday night through Sunday
behind a cold front, with improvement on Monday as high pressure
builds to the south.

Ocean seas may builds towards SCA once again Tuesday into Tuesday
Night ahead of next frontal system.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
With the potential for most, if not all areas to be dry through
next Wednesday, no significant hydrologic impacts are expected
through then.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Maloit
NEAR TERM...GC/Maloit
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...Maloit
AVIATION...NV/DW
MARINE...Maloit/NV
HYDROLOGY...Maloit


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