National Weather Service Forecast for: Bergenfield, NJ Issued by : NWS office in New York, NY
Last update at 15:49:07 2018-02-23
This AfternoonTonightSaturdaySaturday NightSundaySunday NightMondayMonday NightTuesdayTuesday Night
Rain and Patchy FogRain Likely and Patchy Fog then Patchy FogCloudy then Chance RainRain Likely then RainRain then Rain LikelyMostly CloudyMostly SunnyMostly ClearSunnyMostly Clear
Hi 38Lo 38Hi 58Lo 40Hi 49Lo 40Hi 57Lo 37Hi 55Lo 37
This AfternoonRain. Patchy fog. Steady temperature around 38. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
TonightRain likely, mainly before 9pm. Patchy fog before 1am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a temperature rising to around 46 by 4am. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
SaturdayA 50 percent chance of rain after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 58. Northwest wind 3 to 6 mph.
Saturday NightRain, mainly after 9pm. Low around 40. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 9 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
SundayRain, mainly before 3pm. High near 49. East wind 8 to 13 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Sunday NightMostly cloudy, with a low around 40.
MondayMostly sunny, with a high near 57.
Monday NightMostly clear, with a low around 37.
TuesdaySunny, with a high near 55.
Tuesday NightMostly clear, with a low around 37.
WednesdayMostly sunny, with a high near 56.
Wednesday NightA 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41.
ThursdayA 40 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49.
Thursday NightA 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36.
FridayA chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47.
'

NWS Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Text Product Display
Issued by NWS Upton, NY
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Versions:
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FXUS61 KOKX 232127 CCA
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
427 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front moves across this evening, followed by a cold front
early Saturday. Another low pressure system approaches for Saturday,
with its warm front moving towards the region Saturday night. A
low develops along it and this moves across Sunday. High
pressure builds from the Midwest Sunday night and remains in
control through the middle of next week. A frontal system then
approaches for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Going into this evening, the temperatures are expected to eventually
rise after the warm front moves across. Expecting rain to continue
into this evening. Temperatures are pretty much all above freezing
with valley soil temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.

Through tonight, the main upper level jet stream stays in Southeast
Canada near the US border, but will become relatively more zonal.
Likewise, in the mid levels, the flow will become more zonal as the
ridge off the Southeast US becomes more suppressed with local height
falls across the local region.

At the surface, a warm front will be moving across this evening as
winds switch from a more easterly flow to a more southwest to west
flow. Expecting min temperatures to be set early this evening with
rising temperatures late this evening and then remaining nearly
steady overnight.

Rain continues into this evening with the strongest isentropic lift.
This lift diminishes by mid to late this evening and with that, rain
will be exiting east of the region. Expecting also some patchy
fog across the region for the first half of tonight before that more
westerly flow develops and for the interior expecting the patchy fog
to persist a few extra hours as winds will be lighter.
Drier conditions on that more westerly flow can be expected for the
remainder of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This weekend features a strengthening upper level jet from Baja
California extending northeast through the Great Lakes and Northern
New England. The jet itself approaches closer to the region on
Sunday, with the local region getting close to the right front quad
of the upper level jet.

The mid levels convey a ridge moving in with its axis oriented
southeast to northwest with a nearly steady height tendency Saturday
into Saturday evening. A shortwave from the Southwest US will travel
and pivot into the Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Then for Sunday, this shortwave further pivots into Ontario.

At the surface, another low pressure system developing in the South
Central US will have its associated warm front approaching. The day
starts out dry but there will be increasing chances of rain in the
afternoon from southwest to northeast as this warm front approaches
and with some forecast increase in isentropic lift aloft. Used a
blend of MAV and ECS MOS for high temperatures, getting well into
the 50s as a light northwest flow acts as a downslope for adiabatic
warming from higher temperatures aloft.

Saturday night into Sunday will be the bulk of the rainfall. The
warm front will be approaching and with the parent low heading into
the Western Great Lakes and deepening, an increasing easterly flow
will take place. This will load the atmosphere with more moisture as
layer precipitable waters are forecast to increase to 1.1 to 1.4
inches. This will facilitate at times moderate to perhaps heavy
rain.

For temperatures, Saturday used the relatively warmer blend of
MAV and ECS MOS as well as NAM12 2 meter temperatures, mid 30s to
near 40. For Sunday, with rain much of the day used GMOS with 2
meter temperatures of GFS and ECMWF, showing a range from the low
40s to near 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The general North American pattern of troughing in the west and
ridging east of the Rockies looks to continue into next week.
The upper pattern starts to diverge mid to late week next week
as a closed low pres system moves onshore in California and
continues into the Plains. The EC is much slower than the GFS,
but has support from the CMC, therefore this idea was preferred,
but there is low confidence in the details late next week since
there is also large spread in the GEFS and ECENS.

In terms of sensible weather, dry weather returns Sun night as
low pres departs and high pres builds from the Midwest. The high
will remain in control through the middle of next week,
resulting in a continuation of above normal temperatures. Rain
chances will begin to increase Wed night as a WAA pattern ensues,
although due to the aforementioned uncertainty in the upper
pattern, rain could very well hold off until Thu night. Have
scaled back on the previous forecasts PoPs a bit in light of
the 12z data and the large amount of uncertainty. At this time,
atmospheric profiles suggest pcpn starts as rain, with colder
air aloft working in late Thu night/Fri. This may be enough for
a brief period of a wintry mix across locations N of NYC.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure over the Canadian maritime and extending along the
northeast coast moves east as a wave of low pressure passes to
the south of Long Island through 05Z Saturday. High pressure
then builds to the north through Saturday.

Conditions have lowered to IFR with light rain and fog. IFR to
LIFR conditions will prevail into this evening. The rain ends
late tonight with conditions improving to MVFR, then back up to
VFR after 10Z Saturday, and remaining VFR through Saturday.

E winds become SE this afternoon 10 kt or less. Winds diminish
this evening, possibly becoming light and variable before
becoming NW Saturday morning.

A brief period of LLWS is possible 02Z to 07Z.

     ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90


KJFK TAF Comments: Varying ceilings from IFR to LIFR this
evening. Low confidence in IFR ceiling heights. Marginal
confidence in LLWS.

KLGA TAF Comments: Varying ceilings from IFR to LIFR this
evening. Low confidence in IFR ceiling heights. Marginal
confidence in LLWS.

KEWR TAF Comments: Varying ceilings from IFR to LIFR this
evening. Low confidence in IFR ceiling heights. Marginal
confidence in LLWS.

KTEB TAF Comments: Varying ceilings from IFR to LIFR this
evening. Low confidence in IFR ceiling heights. Marginal
confidence in LLWS.

KHPN TAF Comments: Varying ceilings from LIFR to IFR this
evening. Low confidence in IFR ceiling heights. Marginal
confidence in LLWS.

KISP TAF Comments: Varying ceilings from IFR to LIFR this
evening. Low confidence in IFR ceiling heights. Marginal
confidence in LLWS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday afternoon...VFR. Becoming MVFR late in the afternoon
with a chance of rain.
.Saturday Night-Sunday...MVFR/IFR in rain. E wind 10-15kt,
G20-25kt.
.Sunday night-Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
With a decreasing pressure gradient, winds will further decrease
and likewise the seas are expected to continue to decrease as
well into this evening. The more westerly flow late tonight will
briefly increase winds but wind gusts are just marginal with
meeting SCA criteria. With further offshore flow, expect sub SCA
conditions to continue.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected and this
continues through Saturday evening. SCA conditions look quite
probable late Saturday night into Sunday with the possibility of
gales as well on the ocean for Sunday morning.

Hazardous ocean seas are expected to continue into Mon, with sub-
advsy conds thereafter with high pressure building from the
west.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Less than a quarter inch of rain is expected through tonight.
The next event Saturday into Sunday is expected to produce
around 0.75 to 1.25 inches of rain. There could be some locally
higher amounts especially in any areas of orographic lift with
the higher terrain. Ponding of water and minor nuisance flooding
could be localized for Sunday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...19
MARINE...24/JM
HYDROLOGY...24/JM
EQUIPMENT...


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