National Weather Service Forecast for: Bergenfield, NJ Issued by : NWS office in New York, NY
Last update at 03:11:09 2017-09-21
TodayTonightFridayFriday NightSaturdaySaturday NightSundaySunday NightMondayMonday Night
Partly SunnyPartly CloudyMostly SunnyPartly CloudyMostly SunnyMostly ClearSunnyPartly CloudyMostly SunnyMostly Cloudy
Hi 86Lo 62Hi 80Lo 65Hi 82Lo 66Hi 85Lo 69Hi 85Lo 68
TodayPartly sunny, with a high near 86. North wind 6 to 13 mph.
TonightPartly cloudy, with a low around 62. North wind 5 to 9 mph.
FridayMostly sunny, with a high near 80. North wind 8 to 10 mph.
Friday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 65. North wind around 9 mph.
SaturdayMostly sunny, with a high near 82. North wind around 10 mph.
Saturday NightMostly clear, with a low around 66.
SundaySunny, with a high near 85.
Sunday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 69.
MondayMostly sunny, with a high near 85.
Monday NightMostly cloudy, with a low around 68.
TuesdayMostly cloudy, with a high near 82.
Tuesday NightMostly cloudy, with a low around 66.
WednesdayA 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78.
'

NWS Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Text Product Display
Issued by NWS Upton, NY
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Versions:
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FXUS61 KOKX 211003
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
603 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Jose will meander well southeast of the twin forks of Long Island
through tonight, then move slowly west on Friday. By the
weekend, high pressure builds over the area and remains in place
through next week as Jose meanders offshore and slowly weakens.
Meanwhile, hurricane Maria is expected to move off the
southeast coast and is being monitored closely for any potential
impacts to the Northeast later next week. Please refer to
National Hurricane Center products for more details on tropical
systems Jose and Maria.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Only minor updates this morning to reflect current temperature
and wind trends. Warmer temperatures this morning have led to
deeper mixing in the boroughs, with stronger winds being
reported at the NYC airports. Otherwise forecast remains on
track.

High pressure will continue to build into the region from the north
as upper ridging is enhanced from deep troughing over the western
states. Jose will meander well south and east of the Twin Forks of
Long Island today. Please refer to National Hurricane Center
products for more details on Jose.

The tightest pressure gradient will reside across the Twin Forks of
Long island and southeast Connecticut today, and this is where gusts
30-35 mph will be possible. Cloud shield associated with Jose will
continue to bring mostly cloudy skies to at least the eastern half
of the region with a better chance at seeing partly cloudy skies
from the city north and west. Subsidence on the backside of Jose
will keep rain bands just to the east of the forecast area through
this evening.

High temperatures will vary across the area with middle to upper 70s
across eastern Connecticut and Long Island due to more extensive
cloud cover. Further west, highs will warm into the lower and middle
80s.

Dangerous rip currents will continue at Atlantic ocean beaches
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Jose will begin to slowly move westward and weaken late tonight into
Friday as the system gets caught in weak steering flow. The deep
ridging to the west is progged to be highly anomalous so the
westward motion will only bring a weakening Jose a bit closer to the
southeast coast of Long Island. This could bring a few rain bands
back towards the Twin Forks and southeast Connecticut. Will carry
slight chance PoPs tonight through Friday afternoon, with a higher
chance of these rain bands remaining offshore due to dry air and
subsidence. Thickest cloud cover and strongest wind gusts, 30-35
mph, will continue across eastern sections tonight into Friday.
Again, please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more
details on Jose.

Otherwise, upper ridging and high pressure will remain to the north
and west. Dry conditions are forecast for the western two thirds of
the region. Temperatures will be above normal for much of the area,
except for eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut where highs
on Friday will only reach the upper 60s and lower 70s due to
extensive cloud cover. Elsewhere, highs will reach the upper 70s and
lower 80s.

Dangerous rip currents are likely to continue at Atlantic ocean
beaches on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
With tropical cyclone Jose lingering about 200-300 miles offshore of
Montauk, gusty winds and showers may be possible across eastern Long
Island and Connecticut through the weekend. Apart from eastern areas
where clouds may prevail, temperatures will be closer to normal
while humidity will be at comfortable levels as dry air advects
southward around the west side of Jose. By early next week, the
system weakens significantly and high pressure settles across the
area, leading to above normal temperatures. Thereafter less
confidence exists in the forecast, as the National Hurricane Center
has hurricane Maria continuing northward off the southeast coast.
Given the forecast path, beach hazards will likely increase once
again with building surf and the possibility of dangerous rip
currents well ahead of the system. What is less certain is how much
precipitation will be possible between the approaching tropical
system and a trough to the west, or how strong winds will be across
the area by mid to late week. Please continue to monitor National
Hurricane Center forecasts regarding the track and intensity of
Maria.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Tropical cyclone Jose will meander off the southern New England
coast through Friday.

VFR all terminals except KGON which is expected to remain around
2k ft through much if not all of the overnight, before lifting
back to VFR.

Gusts have mostly subsided, however an occasional gust around
20 kt will be possible overnight. Gusts increase after sunrise,
generally 20-30 kt, with the highest across the eastern
terminals.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: An occasional gust may be higher than forecast.
Gusts may become occasional for a period today.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: An occasional gust may be higher than forecast.
Gusts may become occasional for a period today.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: An occasional gust may be higher than forecast.
Gusts may become occasional for a period today.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: An occasional gust may be higher than forecast.
Gusts may become occasional for a period today.

KHPN TAF Comments: An occasional gust may be higher than forecast.
Gusts may become occasional for a period today.

KISP TAF Comments: An occasional gust may be higher than forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Thursday night-Friday...VFR. N winds gusting between 20-25kt.
.Saturday-Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Jose will meander well south and east of the Twin Forks of Long
Island today, and then begin to track westward tonight into Friday.
Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official track and
intensity forecasts for Jose.

SCA gusts will continue for the Eastern LI Sound and eastern LI bays
through tonight, so have extended the SCA through 10z Friday. SCA
gusts will also occur on the ocean waters east of Fire Island inlet
through Friday. Gusts should remain below 25 kt on the ocean west of
Fire Island Inlet, western LI Sound, NY Harbor, and south shore
Bays. There remains a good deal of uncertainty on how high the winds
will get late tonight into Friday on the waters east of Moriches
Inlet. There is a small chance for a few gale force gusts, but due
to uncertainty in the intensity and location of Jose, have elected
to hold winds at SCA levels.

Long period easterly swells will likely continue on the ocean waters
into the weekend. Have extended the SCA on the ocean through Friday
night and this will likely be needed for the remainder of the
weekend.

Although gusts near 25 kt will be possible on Saturday, winds will
continue to decrease thereafter as Jose weakens and high pressure
builds across the area. By next week, swells will increase once
again ahead of hurricane Maria, allowing seas to build well above
SCA-levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are anticipated through early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels through the Friday will approach or exceed minor
coastal flood benchmarks for the most vulnerable locales during
the times of high tide. This is due to TC Jose becoming nearly
stationary about a couple hundred miles to the southeast of
eastern Long Island, and Ekman forces elevating water levels
along the US East coast.

Depending on the intensity and how close to the region Jose
tracks Friday, localized moderate coastal flooding is possible
along the south shore back bays of Long Island.

Surf will remain rough through the week, but dune erosion is
expected to localized.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ080-
     178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ330-340.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD/DS
NEAR TERM...MD/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MD
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MD/DS
HYDROLOGY...MD/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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