000
FXUS61 KOKX 282014
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
414 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts north and east through the region today,
followed by a weak trough tonight. The boundary returns as a
back door cold front on Monday, before a frontal wave moves out
of the Ohio Valley Tuesday, passing to the the south and east
Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure builds in for the
second half of the week, followed by another frontal system over
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A warm front continues to slowly progress thru the region today,
splitting the region in half as of 20z. This boundary will
eventually lift north and east into this evening. Behind the
front, temperatures have managed to climb into the 70s with a
mild SW.

Conditions remain dry for the moment, but increase once again
late today as a weak shortwave rides over ridging in place. This
is instigating scattered convection across Upstate NY that CAMs
sag south and east into the Lower Hudson Valley into early
evening. Soundings and SPC mesoanalysis do indicate a few
hundred joules of elevated CAPE north and west of NYC, and
can`t rule out the possibility of a few thunderstorms before
conditions begin to stabilize with loss of heating and marine
influence. A few gusty downpours can`t be ruled out with any
shower either. This activity works south and east, gradually
dissipating as it pushed offshore. Appears the bulk of the
precip should end everywhere by 6Z or so.

Temperatures tonight will run seasonably mild, with lows in the
50s and low 60s. Patchy fog is possible overnight into early
Monday morning, and could be dense in a few locales.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Amplified ridging aloft remains over the Eastern US on Monday,
with a surface high sitting off the Southeast coast. The warm
front that meandered thru will return as a cold front that
attempts to slowly backdoor the region thru the day.

Before the fropa, NW flow that developed behind the surface
trough should aid deeper mixing than over the weekend and help
lead to summerlike levels of warmth for parts of the area.
Still some uncertainty in the temperature forecast as timing of
a back door cold front and lingering cloud cover will be key
factors in just how warm the BL can get. Should the front
advance a bit quicker, temperatures in and around NYC may be a
bit cooler than currently forecast. Blended in some of the
latest guidance that indicates a slightly quicker fropa across
eastern areas, resulting in cooler highs here. West of the
Hudson and away from maritime influence, temperatures should get
into the low 80s by lunchtime, likely topping out in the mid
80s before falling back late day. Potential continues for parts
of urban NE NJ to get into the upper 80s, or near record heat
for late April. See Climate section below for records data.

The back door cold front advances south and west into the
evening hours, and conditions should quickly cool back into the
60s everywhere by mid evening. Low clouds likely develops in
the easterly flow behind the front, and will need to monitor for
fog potential overnight into Tuesday AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*Key Points*

*Near to slightly below normal temperatures to start the period
followed by a slight warmup for the week`s end.

*Mainly dry conditions expected with a few chances of showers and
thunderstorms as multiple frontal systems impact the area  during
the period.

Upper ridging along the eastern seaboard weakens while moving out
into the Atlantic on Tuesday. This will allow weakening low pressure
over the Ohio Valley to track east along the front, passing to the
south and east of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The best
forcing looks to reside north across the Mid Hudson Valley and
central New England. Rainfall chances have trended down with this
event due to blocking across the western Atlantic. An isolated
thunderstorm can`t be ruled out Tuesday night. With the low tracking
to the south Wednesday, some light rain and/or drizzle could linger
during the first half of the day, especially eastern areas. Ridging
returns for the second half of the week and the trend here has been
more amplified and slower. Thus, the remainder of the week looks to
be dry. Another upper trough then lifts north out of the
intermountain west on Friday, then up into the Great Lakes over the
weekend. This will send another weakening frontal system into the
area Saturday into Sunday.

As for temperatures, an easterly flow on Tuesday following a
backdoor cold front will return highs closer to normal. A gradual
warmup can then be expected for the rest of the week with
temperatures 3 to 5 degrees above normal along the coast, but to 5
to 10 degrees inland. Chance of rain and cloud cover Saturday and
Sunday knocks temps down a bit.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak trough approaches this evening and crosses through
overnight. A back door cold front moves through Monday
afternoon.

VFR through 22z, then expectation of showers across central PA/NY
sinking SE across the terminals this evening. With weak, mainly
elevated instability, advecting into western terminals, a low chance
of thunder for KSWF, KHPN, KEWR, KTEB during evening push, timing
could be as early as 21z for KSWF. Slight chance of thunder for
remainder of NYC/NJ metro terminals this eve, but confidence is too
low to explicitly put in TAFs at this point. Drying conditions after
06z, with patchy fog possible for outlying terminals.

S/SW winds 7-11kt continue for coastal terminals this afternoon with
sea breeze. Winds veering SW and weaken this evening, becoming light
W/NW late tonight with trough passage.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of showers this evening may be an hour or so off. Chance
of thunder, focused around 23-02z this evening, particularly
KHPN/KSWF. S seabreeze of 10 to 15 kt likely for KJFK thru 23z. Low
prob for patchy fog for Mon AM push. Otherwise VFR w/ W/NW 5 to 8 kt.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday: Patchy early AM MVFR, then VFR. NW/N winds under 10 kt
AM, shifting to E/SE winds in the aft/eve. Slight chance of PM
shra/tsra.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower conds. PM SHRA potential, w/ slight TSRA
potential for NW terminals. E/NE winds.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower conds. E/NE winds.

Thursday thru Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels through late week
under a weak pressure gradient regime.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through the end of the week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here are the record high temperatures for Monday, April 29:

EWR: 91/1974
BDR: 86/2017
NYC: 89/1974
LGA: 88/2017*
JFK: 85/2017
ISP: 85/2017

*Also occurred in previous years

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR/DW
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...DR/DW
HYDROLOGY...DR/DW
CLIMATE...