Issued by NWS Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 280902
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
502 AM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control today through Tuesday, followed by
a cold front during Tuesday night. High pressure then returns for
Wednesday and Thursday before another frontal system impacts the
area Thursday night through Saturday. High pressure then builds in
for the end of the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Deep layered ridging through the period with the surface high center
drifting off the Mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon. This will allow
sea breezes to develop, but not before temperatures climb above
normals even in spots affected by the onshore winds. Highs generally
in the 70s. Mainly clear conditions then continue through tonight.
Winds will be light tonight, but from the SW, so this along with
today`s warmth will lead to above normal low temperatures by about 5
degrees. Lows mostly 50-55.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure tracks across SE Canada, dragging a cold front through
the forecast area late Tuesday night. Forcing and moisture will be
lacking, but upstream weakening convection may survive long enough
to have a few showers for parts of the area during Tuesday night.
CAMs and some deterministic regional and global models currently
showing a better chance of precip reaching here versus what`s
implied by NBM PoPs and qpf output. Have therefore bumped up precip
chances from NBM, but still below 50%. Can`t rule out thunder either
NW of the city during the evening, but severe wx not anticipated.
It`s also likely that there`s a wide range of high temperatures
across the area during Tuesday as SW flow holds most of the southern
coasts of LI and SE CT into the 60s. Highs then range upward into
the low to mid 80s for the urban corridor of NE NJ where temps were
adjusted upward a few degrees from NBM based on mostly sunny
conditions and h8 temps near 13-14C.
High pressure builds back in from the NW behind the cold front with
slight ridging aloft during Wednesday. This keeps us dry through
Wednesday night. The position of the high along with a NW flow that
will probably be just strong enough to ward off any seabreezes for
most or all of the daytime will allow for highs mostly in the
70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ridging aloft centered over the Eastern US midweek begins to
translate east to start the period. Along with it, broad surface
high pressure shifts offshore and return flow develops Thursday.
Thereafter, a digging trough into the Great Lakes region with a
couple embedded shortwaves will send a frontal system toward the
region late in the week. Associated warm front looks to lift through
locally Thursday night, followed by a cold frontal passage Friday
night, bringing an increased chance for showers, and perhaps a few
tstorms as well. Global ensembles continue to dry out the region
Saturday as high pressure builds in from the west, though timing
differences remain, with the 00Z EPS a bit quicker with the exiting
system than the GEFS. QPF looks modest, under an inch outside any
localized convective maxima.
Seasonable temperatures to start the period on Thursday, highs in
the 60s and lower 70s. Region then is warm sectored Friday, setting
up the warmest day of the week. Temperatures away from maritime
influence, generally west of the Hudson River, likely climb into
the upper 70s and lower 80s, with potential for mid 80s. Cooler
along the immediate coast with onshore southerly flow, closer
to 70. The region falls back to a more typical air mass for the
time of year over the weekend behind a cold fropa.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds in through the day, sliding offshore into
tonight.
VFR thru TAF period.
NW flow up to around 10 kt to start persists thru this morning.
Winds back more W-SW this afternoon, earliest at immediate coastal
terminals, with speeds remaining around or under 10 kt.
General light SW flow then continues overnight into Tuesday, or
light and vrb at some terminals. Skies largely remain SKC, with high
cirrus developing late in TAF.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of SW wind shift this afternoon could be 1-3 hours off from
TAF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Late Tonight: VFR.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of MVFR with showers at night. SW
wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon and at night.
Wednesday: VFR. W-NW wind gusts 15-20 kt during day.
Thursday: VFR during day. MVFR or lower possible with a chance of
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms at night.
Friday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers. Slight
chance of thunderstorms. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into early
evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions remain below advisory thresholds across all waters today
through Tuesday morning. Winds and seas then increase ahead of an
approaching cold front, which is expected to pass through late
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Had enough confidence to go
with a SCA on the ocean from noon Tuesday through Tuesday night, and
this will likely need to be extended further in time. As for the non-
ocean waters, not enough confidence to extend beyond the 3rd period,
so for the time being, the advisory is for Tuesday afternoon
only.
Increasing southerly flow is expected late Thursday into Friday as a
frontal system begins to move through the region. This may lead to a
period of SCA conditions on the ocean, especially Friday, with
wind gusts up to 25 kt and seas 5 to 6 ft.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values fall to 20-25% in several locations today, however winds
will be light, mainly below 15 mph, so no concerns for fire spread.
For Tuesday, RH may fall to around 30% for parts of NE NJ and the
Lower Hudson Valley with afternoon gusts potentially exceeding
20 mph. Current dewpoint forecast may be too low based on a SW
flow, but at least a low chance of fire spread exists.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomically high tides will couple with a modest SW flow to
allow water levels to approach or just exceed minor flood
thresholds in the more vulnerable locales of coastal Nassau,
Queens, and Fairfield during times of high tide early this week.
A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for this evening`s high
tide cycle in the above mentioned areas, with up to a half foot
of inundation possible. There is potential for an additional
statement once again Tuesday evening.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DR
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JC/DR
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...